• Beware of Confirmation Bias in Sports Betting Analysis

    Added - Jan. 5, 2015 Sports

    If you have general strategies for sports betting, you can often learn something about them by running them through data for previous seasons to see how your approach stacks up. However, in doing this, you have to be really careful about a certain type of problem that can come up: confirmation bias. Confirmation bias in this context means that you'll get lucky that a strategy did really well on a set number of games, so you start believing that this by itself means that your strategy is a winning one when that's not necessarily the case.

    For the most part, the process of testing your basic strategies are as follows. You gather as much data as you can on previous seasons, you run that data through your algorithms and strategies, and then you get to see the results of your bets based on those strategies. This can take a while to set up, but once you do, you'll usually have everything organized in a spreadsheet somehow. This will allow you to make changes to your strategy and see the results very quickly, but this can set up a trap that you need to avoid falling into.

    The ...

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  • Simple Craps Bets for New Players to Use Now

    Added - Dec. 29, 2014 Casino

    When compared to most online casino games, craps is particularly complicated. The game mechanics aren't particularly intuitive, and there are a ton of extra bets that can confuse even people who are familiar with the basic mechanics of the game. If you're looking to get in on the action without having to learn a ton of information, then we have some simple bets that you can use. These are based on rolling a specific number instead of a seven and vice versa, so they're easy to understand and have decent payout rates.

    The place bet is a bet on either 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10 that's betting that it will come instead of a seven. So a place bet on a 4 will win on a 4, lose on a 7 and push on every other total. While this includes a lot of pushes, you traditionally keep the bet going until it clarifies itself as either a win or a loss. The best place bets to make are on a six or an eight which will pay out at 7:6 since a seven has a slightly better chance of being thrown than either ...

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  • How to Use Prophylaxis Effectively in Online Skill Games

    Added - Dec. 22, 2014 Skill

    In games that involve two players facing off against each other with elements of attack and defense, there are different ways to think about the different aspects of the game. One of the main defensive ideas that is available on a high level is the concept of prophylaxis. This is a preventative form of strategic defense that's all about systematically stopping your opponents from having any good plans instead of immediately worrying about instigating your own attacks. It's an exceptionally insidious way to play a lot of online skill games because it's very hard for your opponents to figure out why they aren't ever getting in good situations.

    While how you specifically use this will vary from game to game, you can always break down any particular title into parts to figure out how to effectively use it. That's what we're going to show you how to do here. Start off by figuring out the strategic elements of your particular game. It's fine to just make a quick list on a piece of paper of things like mobility, open lines, the number of pieces you have, the number of actions you have available ...

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  • The Overwhelming Strength of the Free Card Play in No-Limit Hold'em

    Added - Dec. 15, 2014 Poker

    No-limit hold'em is a game that has been mined for strategy in a major way. What we mean by that is that it's hard to find new tactics in this game because there's such an overwhelming amount of material available for it. However, this has created a situation where there's a ton of noise without a strong message for the most part, and you can take advantage of this by knowing exactly what you're going for with your plays. One play that's really good for this is the free card play.

    It's one of the more well-known plays, but it's fallen out of fashion because a lot of players think that it's very transparent. The free card play works by raising in position or betting in position when it's check to you on the flop when you have a draw of some sort. By taking the aggressive route, you take control of the action and have the initiative. A lot of the time, you're going to have your opponent call and check to you on the turn to see what you do. The trick here is that you take ...

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  • Tracking Progress to Improve Your Algorithms in Financial Betting

    Added - Dec. 8, 2014 Financial

    A large part of financial betting is incorporating a degree of testing with trial and error when it comes to seeing if your algorithms are up to a level where they can be profitable. One of the best ways to test your algorithms to systematically improve them is to track the progress of different test options. We're going to show you some examples of how you can use this idea in your own analysis to improve your earnings over time in different types of financial betting. Keep in mind that this is a general concept that applies to many different types of betting, but binary options might be a good place to start since it's very clear how to use it there.

    It all starts with identifying a variable that you aren't sure about. If you're having a hard time placing where this variable should be, then you should pick three guess values that you call high, middle and low. The point here is that you make your best guess which you call the middle, and then you pick a high and low value based around that middle. From here, you'll track how each of ...

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  • Analysis Factors for Single-Person Sports Wagers

    Added - Dec. 1, 2014 Sports

    When you're dealing with sports betting in single-player sports or events, then you have to evaluate everything through a different lense. There are a few major adjustments that you should make to your analysis factors that help you to determine if you have a profitable bet, and we're going to walk you through these factors and how they should be used. We'll also show you how you should be evaluating bets to make sure that you're on the right track towards developing a winning system for spotting profitable wagers. Overall, this is like a crash course in betting on single-person sports.

    Your goal overall is to accurately estimate the chances of each side winning in a single-person sport. You'll do this by analyzing past performances and using all of the information that you can to influence your decision. When you spot winning chances that would give you a good chance at a profitable bet, you take it. If you're right, then you'll become a winning bettor over the long run. The key to this and what makes single-person sports unique with sports betting is that you can get much more detailed with what ...

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  • Avoiding the Traps of All American Video Poker

    Added - Nov. 24, 2014 Casino

    Most video poker games have strategies that fall under a basic set of rules. These rules have to do with which types of hands are worth more than others. In All American video poker, you're not typically going to be able to follow these rules automatically because the payout table is different in ways that are very atypical. In short, you'll get big payouts worth 8x for a full house, straight or flush, and the payout for two pair is reduced to 1x. Also relevant is that the straight flush payout has been increased to 200x.

    Let's look at one good example of a trap hand that most video poker fans would play incorrectly in All American. Suppose you have AdAh9h5h3h. The vast majority of players could tell you that a high pair is stronger than a flush draw in video poker, so they would most likely keep the AA and go from there. In this game, however, that's incorrect. The flush draw is worth about 17 percent more of a bet than the pair is, so you'd be losing some major value even though it's a high pair that you would be passing ...

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